Welcome to another edition of the Money Code newsletter by Stablecon.

Standouts in the news this week:

Kraken's parent Payward has agreed to buy Saldo Bank, adding a route to European deposits, lending and payments. Closing is expected in 2027, subject to approvals. It's another signal for the convergence between traditional and blockchain rails and rhymes with crypto firms' push for OCC charters in the US.

For an industry with a strong early ethos of disintermediating banks, buying one is worth pausing over. Crypto has multiple camps. The Fintech 3.0 camp, my lazy label for it, wants better financial services and is comfortable with compliance, regulation and intermediaries. Owning more of the regulated infrastructure fits that ambition.

Morgan Stanley is approaching convergence from the other direction. Its substantial tokenization plans span equity trading, custodial wallet infrastructure and a Digital Asset Lab. Tokenized-equity support has slipped to Q1 2027. But the breadth of the work shows how seriously a major investment bank is taking tokenization.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered has pushed its $2 trillion stablecoin forecast from 2028 to 2030, after supply spent a year around $309 billion. A year ago, there were many projections above $3 trillion by 2030. Even $2 trillion feels lofty to me. It requires about 6.5 times today's supply in roughly four years.

There are reasons we haven't seen adoption growing beyond the crypto price slump. GENIUS became law last year, with implementation and rulemaking still underway. FASB's proposed accounting clarification is still a proposal. Companies also have to integrate new payment and treasury infrastructure. I don't expect those changes to produce new balances overnight.

But I also don't assume that growing demand for crypto means proportionate growth in stablecoin balances. Trading is an important source of stablecoin demand, and investors have more ways to get exposure without holding USDT or USDC. ETFs provide access through brokerage accounts.

For payments and treasury uses, stablecoins also face competition from tokenized deposits and other bank services. A company that wants programmable dollars has several possible providers. Better dollar access through banks gives some customers another option too.

There is plenty of room for stablecoins to grow, from capital-market settlement to dollar savings in emerging markets. Savings and collateral uses can create lasting balances. Banks and ETFs can also bring more people into crypto, while intermediaries may still use stablecoins behind the scenes. The net effect on stablecoin demand is hard to call.

My expectation is that transaction volume grows faster than outstanding supply as stablecoins circulate more often. I expect substantial growth, but less supply by 2030 than these forecasts imply.

Does $2 trillion by 2030 feel realistic to you?

Read on for a round up of this week's news, including product launches, partnerships and funding updates from Catalyst, Fragment, Meanwhile, EFY Finance, Polygon Labs, BNY, Consensys, HSBC, Rain, Robinhood and more.

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